The Movement for Reform Judaism

The World Union for Progressive Judaism opened its convention in Jerusalem last Thursday. Needless to say, the city's ultra-Orthodox mayor didn't even deign the event with a written message, let alone attendance, but the Prime Minister of Israel, in his televised message, said he wanted to be there, had not another duty prevented him.

The other duty was a meeting of Kadima's central committee at which Olmert made an impassionate speech defending his tenure as Prime Minister and promising to stay in power, even though "I know I'm not popular." His political cronies, anxious to keep their jobs, gave speeches in his support. Shimon Peres, the man for all seasons, even told radio listeners that Olmert is one of the best Prime Ministers the country has ever had. Even better than Shimon Peres?

Tsipi Livni was the only one not to mention Olmert by name when pleading for party unity and solidarity. Commentators inferred that she was offering herself as an alternative. Speaking from total ignorance, of course, I'm among those who aren't convinced that she'll do better than Olmert. She drones on agreeably when she meets Condoleezza Rice and other dignitaries at home and abroad, but does she really have what it takes to pull the country together?

There are no signs that she would be given a chance in the near future. Olmert says he doesn't intend to resign, even when in April the so-called Winograd Commission investigating the conduct of last summer's war in Lebanon is likely to come down hard on him. His spin doctors already have it that Lebanon was a great victory and that whatever problems there may have been were not on Olmert's watch.

A possibility of a quick change of government would be if a sufficient number of Kadima Knesset members (many of whom broke away from Likud to start with) would join Likud in a no-confidence motion and thus defeat the government. That could make Netanyahu Prime Minister. But his chances are slim, especially since his arch-rival in Likud, Silvan Shalom, wants another party primary before the next election so that he can again challenge Netanyahu for the leadership.

Labor could topple Olmert. When Amir Peretz is replaced as its leader at the primaries in May, his successor could pull his party out of the government and thus force an election. But that's not likely to happen, because, according to current polls, Labor, like Kadima, would lose badly and Netanyahu would become Prime Minister. So the new Labor leader - probably an ex-general (Barak or Ayalon) - is likely to replace Peretz as Minister of Defense and so keep Olmert in power to prevent Netanyahu from taking it.

Kadima and Labor have a common adversary: Binyamin Netanyahu. They want to prevent him from becoming Prime Minister at almost any cost, especially now when he has come into money through the support of Arkadi Gaydamek, the oligarch who is about to launch a pro-Netanyahu organization/party. In view of this, the determination of Kadima and Labor may, in fact, be in the national interest.

For the Netanyahu-Gaydamek combination puts the fear of hell into many of us. One (almost) prays for the present government to continue as long as possible and hopes for a miracle that will avert the unholy alliance. Olmert's insistence that he's staying may turn out to be in the best interest of the whole country, not because he deserves it but because the alternative may be turn out to be much worse.

Jerusalem, 18.3.07

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